I got an invitation from Pearson, one of the textbook publishers that is always trying to sell me their texts, to participate in a live webcast with Karl E. Case, Professor of Economics at Wellesley College and founding partner of the real estate research firm Fiserv Case Shiller Weiss, which produces the
S&P Case Shiller Index. The Case Shiller Index is, in my view, the best of the real estate indices.
If you want to check it out, it's March 31st, 12-1 EST.
They want you to register first.
I'm interested because Karl Case has said
housing has hit bottom, and I'd like to know his reasons. There will be a Q&A after the talk, so I'll report back on it.
5 comments:
Registered! Looking forward to watch Q & A live cast of 2 statisticians
I guess I better think of some good questions... you should, too!
Though Case thinks housing has hit bottom, Shiller does not. I like Shiller's book Irrational Exuberance, though a few parts of the analysis are odd. For example, Shiller thinks that market bubbles are purely psychological. That seems illogical to me. More on this later.
Well, since he predicts that the market already hit the bottom, I want to ask him if he has any idea when it will be the next peak(I am interested in some actual no.s from him.perhaps how peak would it be--- is he going to give some kind of no. from the same analysis published in his "irrational exuberance", or maybe he has some new theory to answer this question,:( worst case, he might think my question is worthless to answer)
Although I haven't read his book, but i can imagine the illogicalness of it that you've read- a lot of "apparently correct" prediction could just happen random, as when the no. of samples ( this case his trial in predicting) is big enough, the mean becomes normal, which there would be pretty good chance he would have predict some thing that's actually happen to the market.(I am not challenging Dr. Karl's genius, I comment it in my very intuitive understand that if anyone could have known things so well, why wouldn't they have become the richest person with their own belief in the future)
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