Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Did the Oil Boom Cause the Recession?

There are several recent papers which make the argument that without the oil price boom of 2007-08, there wouldn't have been a recession. James Hamilton says "I don't quite believe the conclusion myself."

These papers make some interesting points, and there certainly is a connection between rising expenditures on gas and falling consumer spending. That said, I don't find it persuasive that rising oil prices "caused" the recession. The primary cause of the recession is the bursting of the artificially induced credit bubble. What caused that bubble was the rapid expansion of the money supply, which is always the ultimate cause of bubbles. There is only one way that stocks can outpace overall productivity growth over a long period, there's only one way that any asset can become outrageously overvalued without coming under pressure from short sellers and that is money creation.

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