Friday, May 01, 2009

GDP Plunges, Unemployment Remains High

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that GDP contracted at an annual rate of 6.1% last quarter (the first quarter of 2009), following on a 6.3% rate of decline the quarter before.

Meanwhile, unemployment seems to be headed for further increases. The latest number from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is 8.5% for the headline unemployment statistic, which the BLS calls U-3. If workers who are "marginally attached" and underemployed (that is, they have given up searching for work, or they would like full time work but are working part time) are counted you get an unemployment rate of 15.6%. Incredible.

What ought to be done?

Given the circumstances unique to this recession, we ought to cut government spending, remove subsidies, cut taxes, refuse to prop up failed and insolvent corporations and banks, and simply allow the market to reach equilibrium.

Creating a system of sound honest money that is tied to a commodity (I favor gold) would stabilize the international monetary order, though it would cause some immediate pain in the short term. Abolishing fractional reserve banking would immediately solve the banking crisis, allowing banks to begin lending.


2 comments:

J-ECON5 student said...

Dr. Bear, didn't you mention how much gold we had in reserve in metric unit , during the class yesterday? I found my note from other teacher regarding the gold asset, on the balance sheet provided by the fed's april 15 report.
I want to make sure I didn't mishear it.
Thank you

Dr. Asatar Bair said...

The official number is 8,133.5 metric tons, though it is not clear how much of that has been leased to other countries through the gold leasing program.