Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Stocks Continue to Rise

The Dow had a good day today, rising 101 points to break the 8500 mark.
If you bought 370 shares of DDM at $26.93 when I recommended it, you'd now have $10,807, an 8.3% return after trading fees (assuming $9.99 per trade).
It feels like the conventional wisdom is that the market has bottomed, and a new bull market has begun. A substantial minority opinion holds that the Dow is in a bear market (or "sucker's") rally. But the big money seems bullish, judging by a recent Barron's survey finding that 59% of money managers are either "bullish" or "very bullish". Since big money drives the market, it is wise to heed what the big money managers are thinking and feeling. As the rally continues, their doubts will fade, and bullish sentiment will increasingly dominate.
The strategy I'm proposing is a risky one, requiring some vigilance to carry out. I believe that the primary trend of the market is bearish, so this strategy looks to the secondary trend, which is even less predictable than the primary trend. Use caution, only invest as much as you're willing to lose.
At some point, when the market rally is nearing its end, we'll want to switch to DXD, which moves inversely to the Dow.

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