To sum up: A few months ago the U.S. economy was in danger of falling into depression. Aggressive monetary policy and deficit spending have, for the time being, averted that danger. And suddenly critics are demanding that we call the whole thing off, and revert to business as usual.The above is a quote from the marvelous Paul Krugman. I love him; and yet, he's so wrong right now.
Let's be clear: aggressive monetary and fiscal policy have not averted any danger to the economy. The danger is not inflation, nor is it deflation. The danger is economic distortions. That is, massive investment in unproductive economic activity (retail, advertising, finance, etc.). This kind of economic activity does not produce anything, and hence it is the major threat to the economy.
Why are there economic distortions? Why should it be the case that the market, which often gets things right, ought to be disastrously wrong? What causes the distortions is the massive inflation of the money supply. That may lead to inflation or it may even lead to stable prices, even deflation for a time. It all depends on how the extra dollars are used. If they are saved, no inflation in consumer prices. If dollars are spent elsewhere in the world, no inflation (at least in the US). If those extra dollars are spent in the US, expect to see some inflation.
Rising or falling prices is not the danger. The danger is that there is a prolonged period of confusion: what are my assets worth? Is my business viable? Should I start this business? What is the market saying?
If the answers to these questions are unusually obscure for a long period of time, the result will be stagnation, low growth, and unemployment. This is the danger. And it's in full bloom now. More aggressive monetary and fiscal policy will worsen the situation, not make it better.
