Friday, May 29, 2009

The Rise of Oil and Gold Is An Early Sign of Inflation

(This filthy-looking pool of oil is from the Exxon Valdez oil spill)

The Federal Reserve must be happy now; they're doing their job: fighting deflation by creating money out of thin air.

The oil price is over $65 now, and gold is over $978. This is an early sign of inflation. We're in an odd situation economically; certain items are in deflationary mode. Deals are
everywhere on housing, furniture, cars, appliances, clothing, travel. These are items that consumers are cutting back on.

Since oil and gold are investment commodities, they are seeing appreciation now because of fears of inflation and the desire to protect assets. A good way to get exposure to the oil price easily is through the oil ETF USO. (This is good for long-term exposure; USO doesn't always track short-term movements in oil prices accurately, because it is the target of arbitrage)

What about the ethics of investing in oil? My dad won't touch it; he says it's a dirty business. Similar concerns have been raised about gold, which is produced by crushing tons of rock into a fine powder, then using acid to dissolve the metal, a process that uses copious amounts of energy.

Each person's ethics come from within. For me, I don't rule out profits from oil or gold, because it doesn't seem helpful to me to say I won't invest in something but I will use other products. I own a car, I own electronics, I have gold in my teeth. If I touch it as a consumer, I'll touch it as an investor, where at least there is an opportunity to make a profit. These things have to be decided on a case-by-case basis. Every corporation is guilty of something, as is every individual.

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